Discussion of a higher diploma thesis in the Faculty of Computer Science and Mathematics - Department of Statistics and Informatics, entitled:
(Local weighted regression in estimation and prediction of sunspots).
A high diploma thesis on the use of positional weighted regression in estimating and predicting sunspots was discussed on Thursday, corresponding to 28/4/2022 in the College of Science and Computer at the University of Mosul, by Ibtihal Fakhruddin Fadel Hassan, under the supervision of Assistant Professor Dr. Muzahim Muhammad Yahya Al-Hashemi.

The thesis dealt with the use of (LOESS) regression in modeling and forecasting the number of monthly as well as annual sunspots. The number of sunspots represented by annual data for the period from 1900 to 2021 (equivalent to 122 years) as well as monthly data for the period from January 1900 to January 2022 (equivalent to 1465 months) were obtained from the global data center (Sunspot Index and Long-term Solar Observations (SILSO).

The analysis showed the high ability of the LOESS regression to represent and predict sunspot data by passing diagnostic tests, despite the periodicity in the series, which is characterized by highs and lows of not fixed frequency, as is the case in seasonal time series that have a fixed and known frequency.
The discussion committee was chaired by Assistant Professor Dr. Hiyam Abdul Majeed Hayawi, with the membership of Dr. Safwan Nazim Rashid, and with the supervision and membership of Assistant Professor Dr. Muzahim Muhammad Yahya Al-Hashemi.

 

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